A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean is likely to become a hurricane as it passes over Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, federal forecasters said Sunday.

Residents of the west coast of Florida and other Gulf Coast states should monitor developments and expect at least heavy rain later in the week, the National Hurricane Center said in a series of updates and forecast discussions.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is about 345 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, the hurricane center…